Sat, Oct 26, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 115 | 210 | 439 |
| SEA | 05 | 07 | 17 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 16:49CARJack DruryGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 10:21SEAJared McCannAssists: Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 15:38CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 18:24CARDmitry OrlovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:30SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:05SEAShane Wright: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:24CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:37CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:47SEAYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:04SEAYanni Gourde: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:26CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:37SEAAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis6:22
xG 0.67–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Carrier – Drury – Blake7:05
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 17–2goals 1–1
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov9:52
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi8:45
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin11:36
xG 0.88–0.23 (80%)attempts 25–5goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker11:40
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:30
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers3:12
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright7:29
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky6:15
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers7:49
xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Montour – Mahura5:32
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Larsson – Evans10:22
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Borgen – Mahura7:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).