Sun, Oct 27, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 116 | 112 | 11 | 334 |
| DET | 113 | 17 | 06 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:46EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:28DETAndrew CoppAssists: Jeff Petry, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:47EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 0:18EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:21DETJoseph Veleno: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:21EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:42DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P3 4:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:09DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:26
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:10
xG 0.60–0.19 (75%)attempts 16–4goals 0–2
- Henrique – Skinner – Brown7:59
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Ryan7:04
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson9:24
xG 0.65–0.18 (78%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard18:43
xG 0.93–0.94 (50%)attempts 29–18goals 2–0
- Nurse – Stecher12:10
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Berggren – Kasper10:42
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Veleno8:14
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond12:26
xG 0.66–0.65 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – Compher12:33
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 8–21goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson19:33
xG 1.24–0.67 (65%)attempts 26–17goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot14:15
xG 0.87–0.92 (49%)attempts 9–21goals 2–0
- Maatta – Johansson14:51
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).