Sun, Oct 27, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 38 | 05 | 424 |
| PHI | 19 | 07 | 210 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Kirby Dach, Jayden Struble · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:24PHITravis SanheimAssists: Ryan Poehling, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:48MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Logan Mailloux, Josh Anderson · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 12:48MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 16:01MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Savard · Snap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 17:48PHITravis SanheimAssists: Joel Farabee, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:17PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:12MTLArber Xhekaj: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:01MTLOliver Kapanen: Holding2 min
- P2 11:05PHIJamie Drysdale: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09PHIMatvei Michkov: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:23MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield12:21
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Pezzetta – Heineman9:10
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:49
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Armia – Newhook – Kapanen9:01
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Struble13:29
xG 0.83–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Savard – Hutson17:16
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Matheson – Xhekaj3:29
xG 0.01–0.33 (3%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Poehling – Farabee9:52
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tippett – Cates – Foerster9:48
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Frost4:28
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov13:32
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Andrae9:28
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:29
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
- Andrae – Drysdale2:42
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).