Mon, Oct 28, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 011 | 110 | 132 |
| CBJ | 36 | 18 | 211 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:44CBJAdam FantilliGWGAssists: Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 14:32CBJCole SillingerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–3
- P2 7:04CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 15:15CBJMikael PyyhtiaAssists: Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 16:39CBJSean MonahanAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.10 xG0–6
- P3 19:33EDMMattias EkholmPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:36EDMViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22CBJKirill Marchenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:43CBJDamon Severson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:44EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 2:16EDMDerek Ryan: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:16CBJIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:55CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:48CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:10CBJJake Christiansen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – Podkolzin3:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Brown3:18
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Arvidsson2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin3:14
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Nurse3:57
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stecher – Emberson2:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:22
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc10:11
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pyyhtia – Sillinger – Fantilli6:26
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 3–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese10:16
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov9:00
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov13:21
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Severson – Provorov2:58
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Harris12:10
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).