Mon, Oct 28, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 312 | 05 | 29 | 526 |
| COL | 27 | 010 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47CHIPhilipp KurashevPPAssists: Alex Vlasic · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 10:16COLCasey MittelstadtAssists: Logan O'Connor, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:04CHILukas ReichelAssists: Craig Smith · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 16:56CHIRyan DonatoGWGAssists: Jason Dickinson, Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P1 19:17COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Alexandar Georgiev · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:02CHIRyan DonatoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
- P3 19:41CHIIlya MikheyevENAssists: Ryan Donato, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:31COLCalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:59COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:46CHITyler Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 18:46CHIWyatt Kaiser: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:00CHIWyatt Kaiser: Holding2 min
- P2 17:03CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P3 15:54COLMiles Wood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Smith – Reichel6:54
xG 0.69–0.21 (76%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Dickinson – Donato – Mikheyev10:15
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Kurashev – Bedard10:07
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hall – Bertuzzi8:46
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Kaiser9:40
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Allan7:47
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Murphy – Vlasic14:16
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMittelstadt – O'Connor – Ivan2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Wagner – Stienburg – Ivan2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Mittelstadt3:52
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Kovalenko3:39
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard8:06
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- de Haan – Malinski8:37
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski4:51
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).