Mon, Oct 28, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 0, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 03 | 07 | 016 |
| VGK | 16 | 116 | 316 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39VGKAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Alexander Holtz, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:30VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 2:19VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Cole Schwindt, Nicolas Roy · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 13:59VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 14:14VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Cole Schwindt · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:03CGYJustin Kirkland: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:54CGYKevin Bahl: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 10:21VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Pospisil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Zary6:52
xG 0.31–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil7:02
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Mantha – Rooney – Kuzmenko2:11
xG 0.11–0.05 (66%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Lomberg – Sharangovich3:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Miromanov16:27
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal11:09
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Andersson – Bahl18:40
xG 0.38–1.28 (23%)attempts 15–32goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Schwindt7:27
xG 0.99–0.27 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 3–0
- Karlsson – Pearson – Holtz10:25
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:22
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev10:54
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin17:06
xG 0.98–0.26 (79%)attempts 28–15goals 2–0
- McNabb – Korczak15:20
xG 1.02–0.32 (76%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud17:01
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).