Tue, Oct 29, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Seattle Kraken 8, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 49 | 28 | 26 | 823 |
| MTL | 115 | 07 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 3:49SEARyker EvansAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 7:27SEAJaden SchwartzPPGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.29 xG3–0
- P1 10:33SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P1 16:11MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Logan Mailloux · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 1:32SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P2 8:44SEABrandon MontourAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.14 xG6–1
- P3 14:12SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Jared McCann, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.15 xG7–1
- P3 15:14SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Josh Mahura, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.14 xG8–1
- P3 15:28MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Matheson, Jayden Struble · Wrist, 0.18 xG8–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:11MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55SEABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01SEARyker Evans: Interference2 min
- P2 0:44MTLAlex Newhook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:23SEAJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:54MTLJake Evans: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:54SEAWill Borgen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:53MTLJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:38SEAJosh Mahura: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:22MTLArber Xhekaj: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 13:22SEAJordan Eberle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:52MTLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:36MTLJayden Struble: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:36MTLJayden Struble: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:34MTLLogan Mailloux: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wright4:23
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Kartye8:56
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers7:55
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – Tolvanen9:21
xG 0.23–1.21 (16%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Evans10:54
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Borgen – Mahura12:24
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour12:08
xG 0.87–1.29 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Evans8:11
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský7:12
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Armia – Dvorak – Newhook2:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield2:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Struble8:40
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Mailloux – Xhekaj10:29
xG 0.96–0.60 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 1–2
- Struble – Hutson3:09
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).