Tue, Oct 29, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 15 | 28 | 06 | 319 |
| WSH | 319 | 114 | 113 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:21NYRWill CuylleAssists: Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 5:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 8:58WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 0:30NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 4:30WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 4:44NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Victor Mancini, Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:24WSHNic DowdENAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.28 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:37WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:43NYRSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:43NYRRyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 5:56WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 9:24NYRVictor Mancini: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:59NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle12:19
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe4:32
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad8:58
xG 0.29–1.02 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:36
xG 0.26–1.61 (14%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Lindgren9:20
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren4:27
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller5:21
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael10:15
xG 1.17–0.09 (92%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Sgarbossa – Vrana – Mangiapane6:06
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime8:38
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas10:00
xG 0.76–0.74 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin11:01
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:18
xG 1.00–0.37 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin4:44
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).