Tue, Oct 29, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Anaheim Ducks 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 17 | 16 | 322 |
| NYI | 013 | 010 | 118 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Frank Vatrano, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 14:07ANATroy TerryPPGWGAssists: Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger · Snap, 0.36 xG2–0
- P3 5:31NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:00ANAFrank VatranoENAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:27NYIPierre Engvall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:11ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:10ANABrian Dumoulin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:01NYIPierre Engvall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:29ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:08ANARobby Fabbri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Zegras – Gauthier8:42
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Terry – Carlsson10:37
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- McGinn – Johnston – Lundeström8:03
xG 0.16–0.65 (20%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish8:49
xG 0.12–0.83 (12%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe11:23
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov15:06
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Fowler – Zellweger16:29
xG 0.26–1.88 (12%)attempts 16–31goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Holmstrom6:46
xG 0.85–0.12 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Fasching – Engvall – MacLean7:02
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Barzal2:38
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Lee – Pageau6:36
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Mayfield3:54
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dobson14:37
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Cholowski6:55
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).