Tue, Oct 29, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 216 | 210 | 114 | 540 |
| PIT | 29 | 011 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36PITValtteri PuustinenPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:31PITRickard RakellAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 17:03MINJakub LaukoAssists: Marat Khusnutdinov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:58MINFrederick GaudreauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 1:38MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 19:23MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 3:36PITRickard RakellAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 19:41MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:24MINJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:10MINMarco Rossi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:12PITLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:39PITJack St. Ivany: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:39MINBrock Faber: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:39PITJack St. Ivany: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:38PITAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:13PITKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:17PITLars Eller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:46
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:51
xG 0.66–0.80 (45%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren5:57
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin10:14
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber13:45
xG 0.97–0.76 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 2–2
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:13
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Merrill11:14
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Crosby – Rakell14:09
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Bunting – Glass – Puustinen2:13
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Glass3:00
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Puustinen – O'Connor5:25
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson3:00
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Pettersson – St. Ivany2:33
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk13:20
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).