Wed, Oct 30, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Los Angeles Kings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 110 | 26 | 326 |
| LAK | 28 | 27 | 212 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58LAKWarren FoegeleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:40LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 10:11LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Mikey Anderson, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 10:55LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Brandt Clarke, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 14:58VGKTanner PearsonAssists: Alexander Holtz, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 6:23LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 8:03LAKJoel EdmundsonAssists: Brandt Clarke, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–6
- P3 11:04VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–6
- P3 17:03VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Tomas Hertl · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:40LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:40VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:47LAKJoel Edmundson: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:50VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:31VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:44LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:43LAKJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Howden – Dorofeyev11:39
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:24
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pearson – Holtz9:56
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Brisson8:32
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin15:36
xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 11–14goals 0–3
- McNabb – Korczak15:46
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud16:46
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 20–14goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Jeannot – Thomas8:30
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore11:52
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte12:07
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Foegele – Byfield – Laferriere10:21
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Anderson16:01
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Englund – Spence12:08
xG 0.53–0.30 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Spence3:51
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).