Thu, Oct 31, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 2, Carolina Hurricanes 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 15 | 05 | 215 |
| CAR | 410 | 218 | 29 | 837 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28CARJack RoslovicAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:11BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 17:14CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 17:52CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, William Carrier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 18:06CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 3:38BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Mark Kastelic, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 8:51CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas · Poke, 0.18 xG2–5
- P2 9:32CARJack RoslovicAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.17 xG2–6
- P3 7:36CARSean WalkerUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–7
- P3 12:13CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:54CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 12:43CARJalen Chatfield: Interference2 min
- P1 13:25CARMartin Necas: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P1 15:40BOSCole Koepke: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59BOSMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44BOSMason Lohrei: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:05BOSJohn Beecher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11BOSNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:49CARSeth Jarvis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Frederic – Brazeau2:04
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Kastelic4:53
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Coyle – Jones – Koepke2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Jones3:10
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo5:23
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy6:31
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- McAvoy – Lohrei6:39
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Drury – Blake9:54
xG 0.49–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis8:00
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov7:33
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:35
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield15:50
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin13:22
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker10:55
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).