Thu, Oct 31, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 5, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 215 | 15 | 29 | 529 |
| NSH | 110 | 010 | 07 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:05NSHFilip ForsbergPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 9:54EDMCorey PerryGWGAssists: Drake Caggiula, Noah Philp · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:03EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 1:48EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 12:46EDMZach HymanAssists: Darnell Nurse, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:20NSHRyan O'Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:30EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15EDMTy Emberson: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:44EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:49EDMMattias Janmark: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:04NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:04EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Caggiula – Philp5:17
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Skinner – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins12:52
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin11:15
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – Arvidsson2:18
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Dermott13:58
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Kulak – Nurse3:12
xG 0.08–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson13:03
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Marchessault6:25
xG 0.65–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Marchessault – Forsberg5:44
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Novak – Evangelista3:15
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Forsberg – Parssinen4:12
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo11:12
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Skjei3:30
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Skjei – Carrier2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).