Fri, Nov 1, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 1, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 013 | 120 | 141 |
| NYR | 19 | 04 | 15 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 2:56NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPGWGAssists: Filip Chytil, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 12:28OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:56NYRSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:05OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:02NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:12NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P3 1:09OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:23NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Gregor – Ostapchuk7:33
xG 0.50–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Greig – Stützle9:45
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson9:51
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen5:05
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot14:53
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven7:25
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Sanderson3:39
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Brodzinski – Edstrom6:31
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad9:03
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle8:57
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:32
xG 0.28–1.06 (21%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Miller14:25
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Trouba – Lindgren14:24
xG 0.09–0.88 (9%)attempts 4–25goals 0–0
- Schneider – Mancini12:47
xG 0.18–1.05 (15%)attempts 6–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).