Fri, Nov 1, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New Jersey Devils 0, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 09 | 08 | 022 |
| CGY | 012 | 011 | 39 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 14:26CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Kevin Bahl, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 14:54CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dan Vladar · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 16:45CGYBlake ColemanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:00CGYTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:15NJDNathan Bastian: Instigator2 min
- P1 15:15CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:15NJDNathan Bastian: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 16:58NJDBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:58CGYAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:46NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 16:13NJDTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:24NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46CGYConnor Zary: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:32CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter6:41
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes8:29
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer9:03
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes13:29
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Dillon – Hamilton11:12
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic13:17
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Mantha – Sharangovich4:17
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary9:59
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Mantha – Lomberg – Rooney3:37
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:24
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl15:29
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
- Barrie – Pachal10:56
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov12:31
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).