Sat, Nov 2, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 17 | 110 | 331 |
| PHI | 05 | 07 | 08 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28BOSMatthew PoitrasGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:23BOSJustin BrazeauAssists: Brad Marchand, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 16:21BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:42PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:25BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:47PHINoah Cates: Holding2 min
- P2 6:13BOSMatthew Poitras: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:46PHIGarnet Hathaway: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:46PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:46BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:46BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09BOSMatthew Poitras: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:09BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kastelic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Zacha – Brazeau10:29
xG 0.78–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Poitras9:06
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Pastrnak10:04
xG 0.58–0.48 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher7:29
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy14:50
xG 1.05–0.43 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo13:24
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Lohrei13:22
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Foerster – Michkov6:16
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink9:38
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov2:55
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost7:56
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale7:46
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Andrae7:35
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim18:11
xG 0.44–1.01 (30%)attempts 15–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).