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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 2, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.

LAK winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CHI0404311023421
LAK112111112052340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:57LAKAlex LaferrierePPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 18:37LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Alex Turcotte, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P3 3:26CHINick FolignoAssists: Nolan Allan · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:34CHICraig SmithAssists: Lukas Reichel, Alex Vlasic · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:48LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:29CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Ryan Donato, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Trevor Moore scored
  2. 2. CHI Connor Bedard scored
  3. 3. LAK Alex Laferriere stopped
  4. 4. CHI Teuvo Teravainen scored
  5. 5. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
  6. 6. CHI Ryan Donato scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:34CHICraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:29CHIPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:00LAKTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 19:00CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 5:46CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 9:28LAKMikey Anderson: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P2 14:37LAKBrandt Clarke: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Bedard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHILAK
21Shots on goal40
1.8Expected goals3.5
43Shot attempts73
19Faceoffs won36
2Power plays3
11Penalty minutes9
25Hits24
17Blocked shots13
12Giveaways13
3Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev9:20

    xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  2. Donato – Kurashev – Bedard10:56

    xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1

  3. Maroon – Smith – Reichel7:44

    xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0

  4. Foligno – Hall – Bertuzzi9:29

    xG 0.14–0.55 (20%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurphy – Allan3:01

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  2. Vlasic – Allan2:07

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0

  3. Murphy – Kaiser5:06

    xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestDanault – Fiala – Moore10:28

    xG 0.65–0.08 (90%)attempts 21–3goals 1–0

  2. Foegele – Byfield – Laferriere9:12

    xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1

  3. Lewis – Jeannot – Thomas8:14

    xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0

  4. Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte9:45

    xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGavrikov – Anderson16:32

    xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0

  2. Edmundson – Clarke13:14

    xG 0.66–0.43 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1

  3. Edmundson – Spence5:27

    xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.5 xGCHI 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #119 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.34 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.

LAK winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).