Sat, Nov 2, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 112 | 111 | 231 |
| NSH | 011 | 25 | 310 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:54COLCale MakarPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:31NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:40NSHColton SissonsAssists: Marc Del Gaizo, Zachary L'Heureux · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:15NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 17:43COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 18:46NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
- P3 19:19NSHGustav NyquistENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:46NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:53COLIvan Ivan: Holding2 min
- P2 2:32NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P2 8:26COLJohn Ludvig: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:19NSHJeremy Lauzon: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:18NSHLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 4:48COLJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Kiviranta10:55
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – O'Connor – Ivan8:52
xG 0.18–0.25 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Mittelstadt3:54
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kovalenko – Prishchepov7:35
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar6:14
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ludvig – Malinski7:34
xG 0.20–0.00 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski3:05
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:27
xG 0.45–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Smith – L'Heureux8:27
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:28
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Parssinen11:42
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Del Gaizo2:26
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Gaizo12:21
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier15:54
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).