Sat, Nov 2, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Utah Hockey Club 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 13 | 17 | 18 | 01 | 319 |
| VGK | 09 | 215 | 19 | 12 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52UTALogan CooleyAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jack McBain · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 12:00UTAIan ColeAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 15:06VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:59VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Nicolas Roy, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 5:37VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 13:10UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Maveric Lamoureux · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:15VGKBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:06UTAJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:39VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Kerfoot – Crouse5:11
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Hayton – Maccelli14:01
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Crouse – Stenlund – McBain2:12
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – McBain2:33
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Kolyachonok2:00
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Lamoureux3:47
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Lamoureux7:38
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Schwindt11:33
xG 1.05–0.09 (92%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:00
xG 0.61–0.67 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev11:11
xG 0.36–0.66 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 1–2
- Karlsson – Pearson – Holtz10:30
xG 0.28–0.75 (27%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin20:43
xG 1.46–0.83 (64%)attempts 22–14goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore19:53
xG 0.83–0.52 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud12:22
xG 0.21–1.04 (17%)attempts 8–18goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).