Sun, Nov 3, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 05 | 06 | 221 |
| CAR | 113 | 218 | 114 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:16WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:49WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P2 2:29CARMartin NecasAssists: Eric Robinson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:26CARDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Jalen Chatfield · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:51CARAndrei SvechnikovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:20CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:31CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:29WSHNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:46WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:41CARJack Roslovic: Holding2 min
- P3 3:54WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Milano – Mangiapane – Lapierre4:08
xG 0.09–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael11:14
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime9:10
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Mangiapane – Strome2:07
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry3:59
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Carlson – Alexeyev2:26
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Fehérváry4:06
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis8:59
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:27
xG 0.99–0.41 (71%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:19
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Carrier – Drury – Blake8:05
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker12:36
xG 1.20–0.44 (73%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin15:31
xG 1.06–0.57 (65%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield16:15
xG 0.71–0.54 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).