Sun, Nov 3, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 011 | 05 | 00 | 128 |
| MIN | 111 | 010 | 011 | 11 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19MINRyan HartmanAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 19:08TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 2:14MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Marco Rossi, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:12MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:58MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45TORChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 6:37TORRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:37MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:32TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:32TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Robertson – McMann8:39
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:53
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf5:23
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander8:35
xG 0.11–0.76 (12%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tanev – McCabe14:08
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly12:37
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit11:35
xG 0.26–0.85 (24%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:18
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:18
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau8:45
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Trenin – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:53
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin14:15
xG 0.80–0.04 (96%)attempts 24–2goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber12:12
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm10:02
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).