Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 012 | 010 | 029 |
| TOR | 07 | 211 | 29 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:44TORMorgan RiellyPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:58TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 14:13TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 15:58TORSteven LorentzENAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:27TORRyan Reaves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:04BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:33BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41TORChris Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:41BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:41TORChris Tanev: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:27TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:29BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:34BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:08TORPontus Holmberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00TORMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:43BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:03TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Zacha – Brazeau4:58
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher5:29
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Pastrnak7:24
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Frederic – Poitras5:29
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Wotherspoon2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Peeke3:33
xG 0.10–0.08 (58%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Nylander9:20
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Domi – Marner – Knies6:31
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann6:15
xG 0.15–0.24 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Kampf6:23
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly9:42
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe9:09
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins2:38
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).