Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 13 | 23 | 416 |
| CAR | 18 | 213 | 314 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 14:25CARJackson BlakeAssists: Jack Drury, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 8:56CAREric RobinsonAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 9:50CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 13:30PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:18PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 1:47CARJack RoslovicAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.36 xG3–4
- P3 9:17PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 19:29CARMartin NecasGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 19:58CARSeth JarvisENUnassisted · Snap, 0.54 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:15CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:08CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:06PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:41CARWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:58PHIEmil Andrae: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Hathaway – Cates5:59
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost2:44
xG 0.25–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Frost – Foerster – Michkov2:54
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Foerster – Michkov3:44
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Drysdale16:05
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Zamula – Andrae8:29
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–2
- Ristolainen – Drysdale2:09
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis13:12
xG 1.20–0.37 (77%)attempts 27–5goals 1–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi11:30
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 2–2
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:50
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Carrier – Drury – Blake7:54
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield16:19
xG 1.80–0.67 (73%)attempts 25–10goals 3–2
- Burns – Slavin17:50
xG 1.28–0.45 (74%)attempts 33–10goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker14:02
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).