Tue, Nov 5, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 214 | 17 | 02 | 0 | 335 |
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 210 | 00 | 1 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:27PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 12:21NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Bo Horvat, Maxim Tsyplakov · Bat, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:37PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 7:44PITMichael BuntingAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Noel Acciari · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 9:41NYISimon HolmstromPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 12:48NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Bo Horvat, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. NYI Bo Horvat scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 6. PIT Kris Letang stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:31PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47NYINoah Dobson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:27NYIPierre Engvall: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:21NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19PITDrew O'Connor: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:02PITMichael Bunting: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:30NYIKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min
- OT 3:24PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Acciari – Puljujarvi8:44
xG 0.74–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Beauvillier – Lizotte5:51
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Glass – O'Connor11:30
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Rakell14:51
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson16:07
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Graves – St. Ivany12:18
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk14:00
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat13:39
xG 0.76–0.91 (46%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:15
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom9:58
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Fasching – Wahlstrom – MacLean3:13
xG 0.08–0.48 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Dobson3:53
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Pulock – Dobson4:14
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hutton – Dobson3:57
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).