Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Utah Hockey Club 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 06 | 08 | 07 | 021 |
| WPG | 012 | 110 | 26 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:57WPGGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 7:30WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 17:01WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.75 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:26WPGRasmus Kupari: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:18WPGColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:54UTANick Schmaltz: Interference2 min
- P2 12:23WPGKyle Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02UTADylan Guenther: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:29WPGLogan Stanley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKeller – Guenther – Cooley10:51
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Hayton – Maccelli10:06
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Crouse – Stenlund – McBain2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – McBain2:15
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Kesselring2:10
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Kesselring11:38
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Cole – Maatta2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:01
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:54
xG 0.49–0.21 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:31
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari6:18
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk16:09
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:26
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Miller – Stanley11:12
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).