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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver

Seattle Kraken 3, Colorado Avalanche 6

Away

Seattle Kraken

3

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.

COL winsSEA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SEA161816320
COL21328211632

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:28COLChris WagnerAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:58SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Matty Beniers, Ryker Evans · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:12COLIvan IvanAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:23SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
  5. P2 6:44COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
  6. P2 9:11COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:31SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Brandon Montour, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
  8. P3 17:55COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
  9. P3 19:58COLNikolai KovalenkoPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Josh Manson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 10:53COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:11SEAJohn Hayden: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 19:23COLCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 2:04COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:46SEAShane Wright: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:44SEAChandler Stephenson: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 9:11SEARyan Winterton: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  8. P3 17:55SEAYanni Gourde: Misconduct10 min
  9. P3 18:07SEABrandon Montour: Charging2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SEA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← SEA attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Beniers
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SEACOL
20Shots on goal32
1.5Expected goals4.2
56Shot attempts73
26Faceoffs won22
3Power plays5
20Penalty minutes6
22Hits20
21Blocked shots22
17Giveaways18
5Takeaways2

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Seattle Kraken

Forward lines

  1. bestSchwartz – Stephenson – Burakovsky10:42

    xG 0.24–0.04 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0

  2. Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:16

    xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

  3. Gourde – Hayden – Tanev6:30

    xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Tolvanen – Winterton – Wright5:30

    xG 0.05–0.61 (8%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestBorgen – Evans10:15

    xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0

  2. Oleksiak – Fleury5:41

    xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  3. Fleury – Evans4:25

    xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestWagner – Tynan – Prishchepov5:28

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0

  2. Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:13

    xG 0.56–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0

  3. Mittelstadt – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:53

    xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0

  4. Kelly – Kovalenko – Ivan6:42

    xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestToews – Makar5:19

    xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  2. Girard – Malinski2:44

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Malinski5:54

    xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.2 xGSEA 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLSEA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #316 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.31 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
SEA 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 90% of the time.

COL winsSEA wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).