Tue, Nov 5, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 26 | 116 | 215 | 537 |
| ANA | 18 | 06 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35ANAOlen ZellwegerPPAssists: Troy Terry, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:22VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:20VANKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Danton Heinen · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:20VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 12:08VANJake DeBruskAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 18:18VANDanton HeinenAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:16VANAatu Räty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:25ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:32ANAIsac Lundeström: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:42VANCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:22ANALeo Carlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 18:25VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:26VANCarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P3 7:51ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min
- P3 13:42ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Heinen – Sherwood6:37
xG 0.85–0.12 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Miller – Boeser – DeBrusk9:29
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Garland – Pettersson – Suter10:05
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Sprong – Hoglander – Räty8:07
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy13:05
xG 0.88–0.31 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes11:31
xG 0.66–0.09 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Brannstrom12:54
xG 0.62–0.08 (89%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Vatrano – Terry – Carlsson2:39
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McGinn – Johnston – Lundeström6:58
xG 0.01–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Gauthier7:55
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Terry – McTavish6:52
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Vaakanainen12:03
xG 0.07–0.26 (20%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Fowler – Zellweger11:23
xG 0.05–0.56 (9%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov15:26
xG 0.28–1.24 (19%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).