Thu, Nov 7, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 013 | 210 | 04 | 337 |
| BOS | 110 | 215 | 08 | 15 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04BOSHampus LindholmAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 2:23CGYTyson BarrieAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Justin Kirkland · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:25BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 8:56BOSCole KoepkeAssists: Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 0:58CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 9:55CGYNazem KadriAssists: Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:40BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:02CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37BOSMason Lohrei: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:49BOSNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:45CGYDustin Wolf: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:09CGYMikael Backlund: Embellishment2 min
- P2 1:09BOSTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:26CGYKevin Rooney: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:26BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:09BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sharangovich won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:52
xG 0.25–0.25 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Zary – Kuzmenko10:36
xG 0.29–0.28 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney6:00
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Pospisil – Sharangovich10:02
xG 0.20–0.42 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Miromanov14:52
xG 0.19–0.31 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Barrie – Pachal8:24
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 2–2
- Andersson – Bahl15:59
xG 0.26–0.91 (22%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Pastrnak – Zacha12:03
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau9:02
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Kastelic – Beecher3:42
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Coyle – Koepke – Poitras6:14
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo13:38
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Lohrei11:00
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy14:58
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).