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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 7, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise

Nashville Predators 2, Florida Panthers 6

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.

FLA winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH071417218
FLA21331219634

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:33FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Niko Mikkola · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:14FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:56FLAEvan RodriguesGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 11:18FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–4
  5. P2 13:52NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:32FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:23FLATomas NosekPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Mackie Samoskevich · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–6
  8. P3 11:51NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Marc Del Gaizo, Luke Evangelista · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 12:41NSHLuke Evangelista: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 15:42FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 19:54NSHLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
  4. P2 7:54NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 9:49NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 13:09FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:06NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 0:00NSHZachary L'Heureux: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 0:00FLATomas Nosek: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 0:00NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 0:00FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 1:07FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
  13. P3 1:07NSHLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 2:21FLANiko Mikkola: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 6:30NSHLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  16. P3 6:47FLAUvis Balinskis: Holding2 min
  17. P3 10:17NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  18. P3 12:42FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
  19. P3 12:42NSHJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 15:27FLAEetu Luostarinen: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Barkov
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHFLA
18Shots on goal34
2.7Expected goals3.3
48Shot attempts67
38Faceoffs won26
5Power plays7
22Penalty minutes18
39Hits21
13Blocked shots10
12Giveaways17
2Takeaways1

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. Tomasino – Parssinen – Evangelista8:50

    xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0

  2. McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux5:02

    xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  3. Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:26

    xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1

  4. Nyquist – Marchessault – Jankowski5:11

    xG 0.05–0.37 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestJosi – Del Gaizo6:43

    xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0

  2. Schenn – Skjei9:22

    xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  3. Schenn – Del Gaizo4:31

    xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestBoqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell7:24

    xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  2. Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:00

    xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1

  3. Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich5:23

    xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  4. Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk7:05

    xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkblad – Forsling9:15

    xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0

  2. Kulikov – Mikkola10:49

    xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1

  3. Schmidt – Balinskis9:56

    xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.3 xGNSH 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLANSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #1022 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +10 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.

FLA winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).