Thu, Nov 7, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 6, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 49 | 17 | 622 |
| NYR | 08 | 08 | 110 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 2:45BUFDylan CozensGWGAssists: Zach Benson, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: JJ Peterka, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 12:09BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Jason Zucker · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 13:51BUFSam LaffertyAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Peyton Krebs · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–0
- P3 4:21NYRWill CuylleAssists: Zac Jones, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 11:55BUFZach BensonPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.34 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:59BUFJacob Bryson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:04NYRChris Kreider: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:13NYRKaapo Kakko: Holding2 min
- P1 19:57BUFZach Benson: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:58BUFBeck Malenstyn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:46NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:52BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:09NYRSam Carrick: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Benson10:27
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka8:39
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod7:40
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 3–9goals 2–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs7:15
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bryson – Dahlin2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Clifton – Gilbert9:59
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Byram11:57
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Vesey – Edstrom10:38
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Cuylle3:41
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Smith – Trocheck – Cuylle5:06
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad3:12
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:53
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
- Jones – Schneider12:01
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller12:28
xG 0.01–0.48 (1%)attempts 6–8goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).