Thu, Nov 7, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 016 | 110 | 136 |
| CAR | 24 | 29 | 15 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jordan Staal, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:47CARJack RoslovicGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:27CARJack RoslovicAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 13:52CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 2:07CAREric RobinsonAssists: Martin Necas, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.25 xG0–5
- P3 5:08PITBlake LizotteUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:28CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:13CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:43PITMichael Bunting: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 7:06CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBeauvillier – Acciari – O'Connor7:03
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Rakell14:50
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Bunting – Puljujarvi – Lizotte7:13
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–1goals 1–1
- Bunting – Acciari – Puljujarvi4:49
xG 0.04–0.08 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Grzelcyk17:23
xG 1.02–0.50 (67%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:44
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 18–14goals 0–3
- Graves – Shea12:42
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:40
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 3–1
- Carrier – Drury – Blake8:29
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:01
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:28
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:06
xG 0.77–0.59 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 3–1
- Burns – Slavin14:14
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker15:56
xG 0.69–1.16 (37%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).