Thu, Nov 7, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Utah Hockey Club 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 111 | 114 | 26 | 431 |
| STL | 18 | 02 | 15 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18UTAMichael KesselringAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 18:41STLColton ParaykoAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 18:09UTAMatias MaccelliAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 13:29STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:39UTADylan GuentherGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:56UTAJack McBainENAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:55STLZachary Bolduc: Holding2 min
- P1 12:21UTAClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:55UTANick Bjugstad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:29STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: Instigator2 min
- P2 0:29UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Kneeing5 min
- P2 0:29STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:29UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:29STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 0:29UTAMaveric Lamoureux: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:45STLAlexey Toropchenko: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Buchnevich won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestMaccelli – Guenther – Cooley7:48
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton9:25
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 1–2
- Stenlund – Carcone – McBain8:16
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Kerfoot – Crouse12:33
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Kesselring11:05
xG 0.83–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Maatta6:37
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring4:29
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou2:15
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 1–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway2:54
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko11:57
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou4:33
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Perunovich3:32
xG 0.07–0.05 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Kessel2:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Joseph8:57
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).