Fri, Nov 8, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 011 | 210 | 432 |
| WSH | 110 | 118 | 06 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11PITErik KarlssonAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 6:59PITMichael BuntingAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 8:22WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:04WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Jakub Vrana, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 10:28PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:37PITNoel AcciariENAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.79 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:33PITLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:29WSHMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:47PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:02WSHJakub Vrana: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:22PITValtteri Puustinen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Bunting3:57
xG 0.38–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Eller – Beauvillier – Puljujarvi2:02
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Lizotte – Puustinen3:17
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bunting – Acciari – Puljujarvi4:40
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Pettersson15:55
xG 1.21–1.26 (49%)attempts 24–16goals 1–2
- Letang – Grzelcyk14:06
xG 0.43–0.80 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Graves – St. Ivany12:27
xG 0.52–0.97 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael10:04
xG 1.45–0.34 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime8:51
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas10:28
xG 0.90–0.79 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Vrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre8:33
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry12:05
xG 1.07–0.57 (65%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Roy – Sandin13:32
xG 0.95–0.57 (62%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:33
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).