Fri, Nov 8, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 310 | 012 | 29 | 531 |
| ANA | 010 | 015 | 210 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31MINJake MiddletonAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:11MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 12:32MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Declan Chisholm, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 2:16ANARobby FabbriUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 14:20MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 17:44MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 19:47ANAMason McTavishAssists: Radko Gudas, Urho Vaakanainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:36MINJakub Lauko: Interference2 min
- P2 2:35MINDeclan Chisholm: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:45ANAAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:23MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:15MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:10MINMatt Boldy: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:12MINZach Bogosian: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:15ANARadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00ANARadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00MINYakov Trenin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:06
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi7:40
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Trenin – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:21
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau8:42
xG 0.37–0.64 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin13:16
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm10:01
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber12:12
xG 0.84–1.43 (37%)attempts 12–26goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Johnston – McTavish5:46
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry6:09
xG 0.71–0.41 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Fabbri – Lundeström3:01
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Gauthier8:46
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Mintyukov12:26
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Zellweger4:48
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen7:54
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).