Fri, Nov 8, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 210 | 05 | 19 | 00 | 324 |
| SEA | 111 | 113 | 17 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 13:31VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 17:21SEABrandon TanevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:12SEABrandon TanevAssists: Tye Kartye · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 2:58SEAOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:38VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 0:29SEAJared McCannGWGAssists: Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:45VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:08SEARyker Evans: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:08SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:16SEABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:48SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Pearson – Holtz10:07
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Roy13:04
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Kolesar – Rondbjerg – Schwindt4:27
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev10:39
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore16:36
xG 0.62–0.74 (46%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:17
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud12:21
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Tanev – Kartye7:48
xG 0.78–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:38
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand5:04
xG 0.35–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright4:06
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour15:49
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans4:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Borgen – Mahura9:53
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).