Sat, Nov 9, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 110 | 212 | 11 | 433 |
| NYI | 15 | 06 | 210 | 01 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:09NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Kyle MacLean · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:57NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:30NYIDennis CholowskiAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 12:26NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Maxim Tsyplakov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 15:33NJDDawson MercerAssists: Paul Cotter, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:10NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:35NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:14NYIPierre Engvall: Holding2 min
- P2 5:17NYIDennis Cholowski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes12:11
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter11:17
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – MacDermid3:51
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer14:00
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Kovacevic19:10
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Dillon – Hamilton14:52
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hughes15:26
xG 0.55–1.07 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov12:27
xG 0.98–0.51 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom11:07
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat14:53
xG 0.39–0.42 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Wahlstrom – MacLean5:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – George21:27
xG 0.92–0.75 (55%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Hutton – Dobson2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pulock – Hutton3:53
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).