Sat, Nov 9, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 7, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 25 | 416 | 731 |
| VAN | 07 | 27 | 16 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 3:30EDMCorey PerryAssists: Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 4:43EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 5:01VANElias PetterssonAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 7:00VANFilip HronekAssists: Teddy Blueger, Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 6:10EDMConnor BrownGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 7:16EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–2
- P3 8:08EDMBrett KulakAssists: Connor McDavid, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 11:05EDMConnor BrownAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.03 xG7–2
- P3 19:06VANPius SuterPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:44VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
- P2 8:21EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:45VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:06VANFilip Hronek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:08EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Brown – Janmark3:57
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin10:10
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid4:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Skinner – Ryan3:00
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:39
xG 0.75–0.23 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Nurse – Stecher14:17
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson12:23
xG 0.33–0.40 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 2–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Hoglander8:41
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood9:31
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Aman – Räty3:22
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Garland – Suter9:18
xG 0.09–0.56 (14%)attempts 2–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes15:39
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Myers – Hughes2:44
xG 0.02–0.01 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Soucy11:13
xG 0.21–0.36 (38%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).