Mon, Nov 11, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 28 | 17 | 05 | 0 | 331 |
| PHI | 211 | 114 | 016 | 02 | 2 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40PHIErik JohnsonAssists: Anthony Richard · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:56PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Emil Andrae · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:09PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Ryan Poehling, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 15:29SJSJack ThompsonAssists: William Eklund, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:33SJSMikael GranlundAssists: William Eklund, Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 17:36SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Henry Thrun, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Owen Tippett stopped
- 2. SJS Macklin Celebrini stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 4. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:43PHIErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43SJSGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:04PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:08SJSTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P1 15:27SJSMikael Granlund: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:09PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:55SJSJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:22PHIBobby Brink: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund12:20
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Dellandrea – Celebrini10:59
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Smith5:39
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Kunin – Smith – Sturm3:46
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thompson5:08
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Rutta – Thrun2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Rutta4:35
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett12:17
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Richard – Poehling – Michkov7:41
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Cates – Foerster6:54
xG 0.45–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink9:33
xG 0.27–0.63 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Andrae18:08
xG 1.37–0.51 (73%)attempts 30–9goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen12:26
xG 0.68–0.30 (70%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Zamula7:36
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).