Mon, Nov 11, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 012 | 15 | 01 | 230 |
| COL | 06 | 29 | 015 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Marc Del Gaizo · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 4:32COLDevon ToewsAssists: Samuel Girard, T.J. Tynan · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:37COLMikko RantanenAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:59NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 2:47COLSamuel GirardGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:46NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:28NSHZachary L'Heureux: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:59COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40COLMikko Rantanen: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Marchessault – Sissons9:40
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux8:24
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:50
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Tomasino – Parssinen – Evangelista7:05
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei16:58
xG 1.13–0.39 (74%)attempts 27–17goals 1–1
- Schenn – Del Gaizo13:58
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Josi – Lauzon2:13
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta8:30
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:30
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kovalenko – Ivan2:37
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – Ivan6:23
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Manson3:27
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar19:00
xG 1.13–0.87 (56%)attempts 20–22goals 0–1
- Manson – Girard10:19
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).