Mon, Nov 11, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 216 | 211 | 17 | 534 |
| VGK | 04 | 013 | 215 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24CAREric RobinsonAssists: Sean Walker, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:46CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 3:38CARJordan StaalSHGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 6:13CARTyson JostAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jack Drury · Deflected, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 6:11VGKJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 14:28CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–1
- P3 19:47VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Alexander Holtz, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:18VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:27CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:47VGKZach Whitecloud: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:53VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:44CARBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:40VGKIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min
- P3 18:08CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:22
xG 0.85–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Jost – Drury – Blake6:00
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:43
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:42
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:45
xG 0.98–0.31 (76%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker11:13
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:46
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Pearson – Kolesar2:21
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Rondbjerg – Schwindt3:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pearson – Holtz4:00
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Hertl – Howden – Dorofeyev11:21
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak9:28
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Theodore – Whitecloud13:23
xG 0.63–0.67 (49%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Theodore – Korczak4:42
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).