Tue, Nov 12, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 117 | 218 | 06 | 341 |
| TOR | 09 | 09 | 09 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:12OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 3:55OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:49TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:38OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:53OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:29TORConor Timmins: Interference2 min
- P2 17:07OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 6:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:33TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:33OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32TORMatthew Knies: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle8:32
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Norris – Tkachuk – Greig8:22
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Amadio – Gregor – Pinto8:33
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen6:27
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub12:02
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:10
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Kleven13:26
xG 0.64–0.37 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Lorentz – Kampf7:39
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner2:48
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann4:36
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Dewar – Holmberg – Knies2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – McCabe12:20
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit11:34
xG 0.08–0.62 (12%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly11:29
xG 0.16–0.93 (14%)attempts 5–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).