Tue, Nov 12, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 010 | 311 | 330 |
| STL | 06 | 28 | 08 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:24STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 12:12STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Dylan Holloway, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 4:53BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 9:15BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Brad Marchand, Justin Brazeau · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 18:13BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:51STLAlexey Toropchenko: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:23STLPierre-Olivier Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58BOSJustin Brazeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:02STLRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:24BOSCole Koepke: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:32STLRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:15
xG 1.13–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau6:31
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Frederic – Kastelic – Koepke2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher5:58
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy10:55
xG 0.89–0.11 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo3:53
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei4:21
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:08
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours11:30
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Saad – Sundqvist – Texier6:36
xG 0.08–0.47 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway10:06
xG 0.06–0.91 (6%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPerunovich – Kessel8:53
xG 0.67–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Parayko14:49
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 6–19goals 0–3
- Faulk – Joseph14:22
xG 0.19–1.25 (13%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).