Tue, Nov 12, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 26 | 00 | 322 |
| EDM | 013 | 110 | 215 | 14 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:36EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 15:58NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:57EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 10:19EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 12:54NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:20NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 1:52EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.44 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:13NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19EDMCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:59NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:23EDMAdam Henrique: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom9:38
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Wahlstrom – MacLean5:39
xG 0.02–0.22 (7%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Horvat11:33
xG 0.60–1.07 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov11:29
xG 0.45–0.93 (32%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Dobson – George17:29
xG 0.68–0.92 (43%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Cholowski – Hutton10:15
xG 0.16–0.97 (14%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pulock19:24
xG 0.56–1.65 (25%)attempts 16–28goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:45
xG 1.66–0.34 (83%)attempts 25–9goals 2–1
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark9:46
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Skinner – Ryan5:38
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:30
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard19:25
xG 1.85–0.46 (80%)attempts 37–14goals 1–1
- Kulak – Nurse10:29
xG 0.78–0.24 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Stecher – Emberson2:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).