Tue, Nov 12, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 07 | 013 | 129 |
| VAN | 012 | 214 | 16 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:00CGYJustin KirklandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 0:23VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:38VANPius SuterGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 6:19VANErik BrannstromAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:00CGYDaniil Miromanov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31VANDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:14CGYRyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:35VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:48CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKirkland – Lomberg – Rooney5:35
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato12:15
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Pospisil – Kuzmenko9:26
xG 0.26–0.80 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kadri – Sharangovich – Zary10:38
xG 0.12–0.90 (11%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson2:09
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov14:40
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl16:02
xG 0.88–1.19 (43%)attempts 14–20goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Suter – Lekkerimäki9:21
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson11:16
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood10:39
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hoglander – Räty – Bains7:31
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Brannstrom12:28
xG 0.84–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes14:40
xG 1.24–0.74 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Myers – Soucy14:22
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).