Wed, Nov 13, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 114 | 117 | 339 |
| ANA | 19 | 05 | 110 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:39ANABrock McGinnAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Brett Leason · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 19:11VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Cole Schwindt · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:43VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 4:29VGKPavel DorofeyevGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:46ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Brett Leason, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:57ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28ANABrett Leason: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:26VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:56VGKGrigori Denisenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:51VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:31ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Harkins won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Kolesar – Roy6:31
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pearson – Howden2:05
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Schwindt2:47
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pearson – Denisenko2:39
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud14:13
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:34
xG 1.08–0.73 (60%)attempts 23–16goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:41
xG 1.14–1.08 (51%)attempts 25–20goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Lundeström – Leason9:39
xG 0.96–0.53 (64%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Killorn – Strome – Carlsson10:20
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Terry – Zegras11:55
xG 0.43–0.90 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Gauthier6:57
xG 0.12–0.76 (13%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Mintyukov15:21
xG 1.16–1.01 (53%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Vaakanainen – Zellweger11:26
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Gudas – LaCombe16:25
xG 0.27–0.90 (23%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).