Thu, Nov 14, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 211 | 08 | 00 | 327 |
| BUF | 216 | 010 | 16 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Slap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 12:47BUFZach BensonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:49BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jacob Bryson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:25STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:15STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 12:57BUFAlex TuchAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:33BUFRasmus DahlinPPGWGAssists: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:43STLScott Perunovich: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:30STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58BUFJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00STLOskar Sundqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Holloway14:04
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Kapanen – Joseph6:48
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko11:29
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours12:02
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich5:53
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Suter – Parayko22:29
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Parayko – Perunovich2:32
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Benson8:05
xG 0.44–0.15 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson5:25
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Lafferty – Malenstyn6:33
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram14:37
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Byram – Power7:24
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Bryson – Power9:12
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).