Thu, Nov 14, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 13 | 14 | 29 | 13 | 519 |
| OTT | 114 | 114 | 26 | 03 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31PHITravis SanheimAssists: Emil Andrae, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:02OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Josh Norris, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 8:41OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:48PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates, Nick Seeler · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:27OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:05OTTAdam GaudettePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Ridly Greig · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 10:42PHIAnthony RichardAssists: Bobby Brink, Egor Zamula · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 12:45PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Anthony Richard, Travis Sanheim · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 4:05PHIMatvei MichkovGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:32OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P1 17:56PHIMatvei Michkov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:09PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:16PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:57PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:45OTTJosh Norris: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:22PHITyson Foerster: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:37PHIEmil Andrae: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichard – Frost – Brink2:32
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Michkov3:56
xG 0.02–0.00 (91%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Richard – Frost – Michkov3:40
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Farabee2:44
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim2:01
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zamula8:02
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Andrae17:48
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 14–26goals 2–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle11:44
xG 0.70–0.05 (93%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Tkachuk – Greig10:46
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen5:39
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Amadio – Gregor – Pinto9:30
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot16:00
xG 1.01–0.11 (90%)attempts 31–4goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Kleven11:06
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Sanderson – Zub14:44
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).