Thu, Nov 14, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 2, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 06 | 18 | 225 |
| DAL | 210 | 315 | 213 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:36DALEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 17:48BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:15DALLogan StankovenGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 15:56DALOskar BäckAssists: Colin Blackwell, Esa Lindell · Poke, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 19:49DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Sam Steel, Oskar Bäck · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 0:47DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P3 3:35BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 17:19DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:36BOSMason Lohrei: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 12:45DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:45BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:45DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:21DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:19BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:19BOSNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:27BOSTrent Frederic: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:18
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 1–3
- Coyle – Frederic – Kastelic3:51
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Brown – Koepke – Beecher3:08
xG 0.08–0.11 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kastelic – Beecher5:51
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Wotherspoon13:20
xG 1.10–0.66 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy15:55
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- McAvoy – Lohrei3:30
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment14:13
xG 1.10–0.25 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston9:38
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Robertson11:43
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck9:10
xG 0.23–0.84 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lundkvist10:51
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin2:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley5:22
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).