Thu, Nov 14, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 04 | 19 | 01 | 222 |
| EDM | 09 | 215 | 08 | 12 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:44EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:30EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Brett Kulak, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 17:12NSHCole SmithAssists: Zachary L'Heureux, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:33EDMDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:47NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:59NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:02NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:07EDMJeff Skinner: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:51EDMCorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:16NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTomasino – Parssinen – Evangelista7:47
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Marchessault – Sissons9:10
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux6:39
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 2–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:39
xG 0.46–0.98 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo11:21
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – Carrier2:23
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Del Gaizo2:58
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Draisaitl – Podkolzin7:36
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:26
xG 0.77–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark7:06
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Ryan2:08
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:21
xG 1.41–0.38 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Dermott – Emberson2:37
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse9:00
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).