Fri, Nov 15, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 110 | 04 | 223 |
| CBJ | 26 | 114 | 319 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20CBJZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Jake Christiansen, Kevin Labanc · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:39CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 11:51PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 12:06PITMichael BuntingPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 16:27CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 1:56CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 9:49CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 15:32CBJCole SillingerENAssists: Ivan Provorov, Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:32PITDrew O'Connor: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:07CBJEgor Chinakhov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:59CBJJake Christiansen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:18CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05PITJack St. Ivany: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:56PITNoel Acciari: Holding2 min
- P3 10:28PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:30CBJDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Danforth
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPuljujarvi – Poulin – O'Connor8:31
xG 1.08–0.55 (66%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier9:29
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Rakell2:51
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Nieto – Acciari – Puustinen7:52
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Pettersson14:55
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Graves – Shea8:22
xG 0.95–1.03 (48%)attempts 18–16goals 0–3
- Grzelcyk – St. Ivany9:47
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov8:21
xG 1.01–0.28 (79%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Aston-Reese9:25
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Chinakhov – Sillinger – Fantilli7:26
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Olivier – Danforth – Pyyhtia8:33
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov12:34
xG 1.19–0.33 (78%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Werenski – Fabbro13:42
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Harris – Christiansen13:46
xG 0.73–1.33 (35%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).